On small area estimation under informative sampling danny pfeffermann1 and michael sverchkov2 1hebrew university and university of southampton, 2b u r ea of l b s ti s c nd u t h l gy associates, inc. Fay and herriot 1979 used model 3 in the context of estimating percapita income for small areas in the united states with population less than 1,000. Small area estimation and microsimulation modeling 1st edition azi. On small area estimation under informative sampling.
One way to analyze this information is by utilizing small area analysis. Introduction to small area estimation small area estimation in r application to mexican income data conclusion small area estimation in r with application to mexican income data annkristin kreutzmann1, s oren pannier1 natalia rojasperilla1, timo schmid1 matthias templ2 nikos tzavidis3 1 freie universit at berlin. In particular, the mixed model involving random area speci c e ects that account for between area variation. In the okavango delta and surrounding areas elephant numbers have remained stable since 2010 at roughly 76,000. Small area analysis saa describes statistical methods or techniques used to produce adequate estimates when there is insufficient information or small sample size. Assessing risks to stability center for strategic and. Pdf small area estimation of income using spatiotemporal. On the replicability of official poverty estimates. Employment rates in rural areas by poverty status, 200203200910 56. Even though the term small domain may seem to be proper in the business survey context, small area is intended in the literature as a general concept and it is used to indicate a general partition of. Applying bivariate binomiallogit normal models to small area estimation carolina franco1 and william r. Small area estimation of hiv prevelance using botswana aids. Section 4 describes data sources and comparability.
Small area estimation in r with application to mexican income. Read download small area estimation pdf pdf download. The pressure on the countrys small area of land that can be cultivated is intense, and both. An unbiased estimator is obtained from a sample survey for a large area. Rao small area estimation 2003 wrote a very comprehensive book, which covers all the main developments in this topic until that time. Pushpal k mukhopadhyay and allen mcdowell, sas institute. Demand from the private sector has also increased because business decisions, particularly those related to small businesses, rely heavily on local socioeconomic conditions. Mixed models with unit level auxiliary data have been used for small area estimation by a good number of authors. They used i logyi, where yi is the percapita income in the ith area. It can also be used to denote a small demographic group, such as a small group with certain social economic status or a sexraceethnicity group.
Small area estimation sae is a set of techniques well suited to estimation of forest attributes for small areas in which the existing sample size is small and auxiliary information is available. Botswana was formerly the british protectorate of bechuanaland until. Statistical policy working paper 21 indirect estimators in. Small area estimation sae is an area of active growth and research in survey statistics that emerged since the 1990s. Small area estimation from the american community survey.
Small area estimation sae is a technique used to generate estimates in small geographical areas that would otherwise have too few respondents from the survey to derive precise direct estimates. The purpose of this report is to document, in a manner that will facilitate comparisons, the practices and estimation methods of the. This was followed by another estimate in 1998 by the task force report on the policy on smmes in botswana, indicating that there were approximately 56, 300 small, micro and medium enterprises smme businesses operating in botswana, employing 125,000 people including business owners task force report on the policy on smmes in botswana, 1998. First, one derives the best predictor bp of the mixed effects of interests, such as the small area means. Uses a basic area level linear model to illustrate the methods. Using small area estimation techniques, we developed a populationwide dataset of comorbidity of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and obesity for england at the small area level.
This manual provides a systematic approach to assessing and improving the accuracy of target. Targeting the poor in vietnam using a small area estimation. This followed greater demands for detailed estimates from data users accompanied with greater availability of computing power. Small area estimation using esds government surveys. Small area income and poverty estimates saipe program. Theory and practice michael hid iroglou statistical innovation and research div ision, statistics canada, 1 6 th floor section d, r. Survey sampling theory and applications 1st edition. Small area estimation is an arena that has seen rapid development in the past 50 years, due to its widespread applicability in government projects, marketing re search and many other areas. Estimate for small area using a model of the relationship across small areas.
May 2020 small area estimation of sport participation and. This approach was used to generate area estimates for the 6,791 middle super output areas msoas in england for the following measures. We assume stratified sampling with small areas as the strata. Estimation methods of a particular type, referred to as small area or indirect estimators, have sometimes been used in these situations. Chapter 22 small area estimation data science with r. The second is to test how the small area estimation works in the recent vietnam living household standard survey vhlss in 2004. Purchase survey sampling theory and applications 1st edition.
Small area demography refers to demographic applications and analyses executed at local and regional scales smith and morrison, 2005. Botswana officially the republic of botswana is a landlocked country in southern africa. Pengujian metode small area estimation sae untuk pembuatan peta status gizi di indonesia. Spatial smoothing one technique uses information from one neighborhood to understand another this is called spatial smoothing figure 2. With 189 member countries, staff from more than 170 countries, and offices in over locations, the world bank group is a unique global partnership. Small area modelbased estimators using big data sources. This paper is a product of the poverty and equity global practice and a background report for the 2021. A good example is saipe small area income and poverty estimation mandated by the us legislature. Small area estimation of poverty under structural change.
Selected sae methods were compared for estimating a variety of forest attributes for small areas using ground data and light detection and ranging. However, it is often di cult to obtain errorfree data for this purpose. In a nutshell, the botswana 2011 phc, linked to other surveys taking place in the. Pushpal k mukhopadhyay and allen mcdowell, sas institute inc. Applying binomialnormal models to small area estimation. Use big data sources to generate new covariates for small area models. Popular techniques for small area estimation use implicit or explicit statistical models to indirectly estimate the small area parameters of interest. Basic area level model was studied by a number of authors for estimating small area means. We focus here on poverty estimates of schoolaged 517 children for. Bell2 1center for statistical research and methodology, 2research and methodology directorate u. A small area or small domain is any subpopulation for which a direct estimator with the required precision is not available. Start reading small area estimation for free online and get access to an unlimited library of academic and nonfiction books on perlego.
Classical small area estimation techniques assume either that all the areas are represented in the sample or that the selection of the areas to the sample is noninformative. Census bureau has implemented small area estimation models in the production of of. We estimate that a minimum of 385 elephants were poached in botswana in 20172018. Jan 09, 2003 an accessible introduction to indirect estimation methods, both traditional and modelbased. Small area estimation of income using spatiotemporal models university of lodz statistical office in lodz alina jedrzejczak jan kubacki 11. While no universally accepted definition exists for what constitutes a small area for population estimation and projection purposes, it commonly involves administrative units below the national and state level.
They are typically estimated based on a consumption survey reporting on pov erty and a census providing the spatial disaggregation. A special case of this model, related to block diagonal covariance structure, can be described as follows. Small area poverty maps allow for the design of policies based on spatial differences in welfare. Introduction the republic of botswana is a sparsely populated country, with 2,038,228 inhabitants living in 581,730 km2 of land of which 70 percent is dominated by the kalahari desert.
Robust small area estimation under unit level models. Botswana is also subject to swings in psychological factors that affect consumer confidence, such as the september 11. The term small area in this context generally refers to a small geographical area such as a county. Small area estimation is any of several statistical techniques involving the estimation of parameters for small subpopulations, generally used when the subpopulation of interest is included in a larger survey the term small area in this context generally refers to a small geographical area such as a county. Mapping poverty in botswana 2010 mapping poverty in botswana 2010 statistics botswana statistics botswana 9 1. We identify three possible approaches to the use of big data in the small area estimation framework. Section 4 provides four examples that reflect the diverse uses of small area estimations at statistics canada 2. Report no 63842fj republic of fiji poverty trends, profiles and small area estimation poverty maps in republic of fiji 20032009 september 15, 2011. Census bureaus saipe small area income and poverty estimates program esti.
A methodological approach to small area estimation for the. The first is to investigate whether collection of data on expenditure using quick and simple questionnaires can yield reliable expenditure data. Small area estimation under spatial sar model jan kubacki centre for mathematical statistics, statistical office in lodz alina jedrzejczak chair of statistical methods, institute of econometrics and statistics, university of lodz, poland summary in the paper the method of small area estimation under spatial simultaneous autoregressive sar model is presented. In this dissertation, each project describes a model used for small. Small area health insurance estimates sahie programs. The mapping and size estimation of select key populations in botswana study will help the country in evidence based planning, prioritizing the. A stata package for unit level small area estimation. Assessing and improving the accuracy of target population.
This paper presents a new method which allows for the estimation of uptodate small area poverty maps when only a. Pdf fully bayesian benchmarking of small area estimation. Botswana is the second largest volume producer in the world after australia, and is the largest in terms of output value. Methods for indirect small area estimation parameters of interest. The height of the error bars is small compared to the rise. Census bureaus small area income and poverty estimates program produces singleyear estimates of income and poverty for all u. Introduction to small area estimation small area estimation in r application to mexican income data conclusion r packages for sae other packages i bayessae for area level models in bayesian context i saerobust for robust area level models i saery and sae2 for area level models with time e ects i sae for a wide variety of sae methods including area level and unitlevel models for the mean as. Small area estimation is an arena that has seen rapid development in the past 50 years, due to its widespread applicability in government projects, marketing research and many other areas. Pdf small area estimation under spatial sar model jan. The under5 mortality rate u5mr is an important metric of child health and survival. In addition, the methodological approach used in this report constitutes a technical contribution to the knowledge of using small area estimation techniques for.
The client will always require more than is specified at the design stage fuller 1999. The pike estimates are now believed to be rather low, a fact that was recognised by. But, the small area data, especially the designbased variance estimates, could be very unreliable and noisy making it di cult to identify a reasonable gvf model with small area speci c random e ects. Praise for the first edition this pioneering work, in which rao provides a comprehensive and uptodate treatment of small area estimation, will become a.
A poverty profile for rural botswana deep blue university of. Small area estimation and microsimulation modeling is the first practical handbook that comprehensively presents modern statistical sae methods in the. Readers will also find the latest methods for measuring the variability of the estimates as well as the techniques for model validation. It is also referred to as small area estimation or small domain analysis. Applying bivariate binomiallogit normal models to small. With small samples in an area, instability in estimateslow precision. When the areas are sampled with unequal selection probabilities that are related to the values of the response variable, the classical. Small area estimation techniques are a way to overcome the problems described above to provide more reliable estimates when sample sizes for certain areas are small. Sae addresses the problem of obtaining reasonable estimates for domains where small sample sizes do. On small area estimation a dissertation submitted to the faculty of the graduate school of the university of minnesota by abhishek nandy in partial fulfillment of the. Its high gross national income by some estimates the fourthlargest in africa. Small area estimation in r with application to mexican.
The seminar application of small area estimation techniques in the social sciences begins to keynote speech by professor jnk rao, of carlenton u. Pdf estimation of small area characteristics using. A comparison of smallarea estimation techniques to. A typical assumption used in small area estimation is that the direct small area estimates,1il.
Similar to longford 2006, we seek efficient allocation that minimizes a linear combination of the mean squared errors of composite small area estimators and of an estimator of the overall mean. Pdf small area estimation of under5 mortality in bangladesh. Zambezi river at a place called kazungula meaning a small sa. Besides the census bureaus wellknown saipe and sahie programs, researchers in the esmd are actively pursuing stateoftheart small area es timation techniques to improve the current estimation methodologies for small areas. Matching data from the 2011 health survey for england and the 2011 census in england and wales, we proposed a new global optimisation go survey calibration. Sampling design contribution to small area estimation. Estimates were made of amounts of food, cloth ing, housing. Poor batswana, especially in rural areas, still have few formal financial assets. On small area estimation a dissertation submitted to the faculty of the graduate school of the university of minnesota by abhishek nandy in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy snigdhansu chatterjee, adviser october 2016.
A modelbased approach to predict employee compensation. Download applying bivariate binomiallogit normal models to small area estimation pdf small area income and poverty estimates program estimates poverty for various age groups for states, counties, and school districts of the u. Small area estimation of hiv prevelance using botswana aids impact survey data, bais iv 20. Hence, the outcome of the small area estimation investigation should assist policy makers in their decisionmaking. Gets larger as the small area sample increases example.
Evidence of a growing elephant poaching problem in botswana. Small area estimation is important in survey analysis when domain subpopulation sample sizes are too small to provide adequate precision for direct domain estimators. Small area estimation of nonmonetary poverty with geospatial data. The total elephant population estimate in northern botswana was 129,939 12,500 margin. An overview aapor 2014 25 28 referencesii datta, g. Use big data sources to create local indicators and compare them to those obtained with small area estimation methods. Small area estimation is any of several statistical techniques involving the estimation of parameters for small subpopulations, generally used when the subpopulation of interest is included in a larger survey. Thus, it is especially prone to business cycles that lead to large swings in the demand for luxury goods. Section 3 defines the notation, provides a number of typical direct estimators, and indirect estimators used in small area estimation. Pdf fully bayesian benchmarking of small area estimation models. A comparison of smallarea estimation techniques to estimate.
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